French agricultural consultancy Strategie Grains said the country's grain stocks European Union (EU) are increasing as more wheat, barley and corn arrive on the continent via Eastern European countries and Spain.
A Strategy Grains said the increase in imports of Ukrainian wheat, specifically, showed that the market was less tight than expected and that there is a very comfortable ending stock position for the EU.
In a report, the consultancy firm states that the market for wheat The EU is expected to end the 2022/23 season with a surplus of 2,9 million tonnes, well above the previous estimate of 100 tonnes in last month's forecast.
The balance of barley and corn should also increase respectively to 800 thousand tons and 1,3 million tons, compared to 600 thousand tons and 500 thousand tons previously forecast.
Corn shortages after Europe's dry summer are set to ease thanks to increased imports from Ukraine and Brazil.
“If there is no further escalation of the war in Ukraine and if the maritime corridor continues to operate, EU imports of Ukrainian corn could exceed the already high level we currently forecast. In this case, market fragility would decrease substantially,” the consultancy added.
Grains from Ukraine
This week, data from Ukraine's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food showed that the country had shipped 6,9 million tonnes of grains, vegetables and edible oils in September, nearly matching the 7,1 million tonnes exported in the same period last year.
Strategie Grains expects EU grain consumption to fall if there is a recession in the eurozone – with lower demand in the animal feed and ethanol sectors.
The consultancy noted that prices have risen in recent weeks due to concerns over the security of the Black Sea grain corridor, but said lower prices are likely in the long term as stock levels rise.
Price volatility, however, is likely to remain because of the prolonged Black Sea conflict, economic concerns and geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the grain corridor, he added.
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